SAY ANALYSTS: Money, loyal network will decide 2010 polls

Philippine Daily Inquirer

MANILA, Philippines—The presidential election next year will be won by the candidate who has the biggest campaign budget and ground-level network, analysts said Thursday.

About a half-dozen candidates are expected to be in the fray for the May 2010 presidential election to replace President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and lead the country for the next six years.

“This is going to be one of the closest political contests in Philippine history,” said Earl Parreño, an analyst at the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms.

“Based on initial public opinion polls, we don’t really see any runaway candidate. Next year’s contest might be decided by less than one million votes [out of a 40-million electorate] so the candidate with vast resources and network would really have a clear edge.”

The likely candidates are:

Sen. Manuel Villar. Perhaps the best placed in terms of money, he is a self-made billionaire and controls real estate firm Vista Land and Lifescapes. In politics for 17 years, he says his experience in running a company will be key to a successful presidency.

Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II. Called the intelligent man’s candidate, Roxas is a former Wall Street banker and the grandson of a former president. He has served as trade secretary in two Cabinets. No slouch in the money department either, his mother belongs to the wealthy Araneta clan, which owns a large chunk of Manila real estate.

Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero. Not yet 40, he qualifies to run for president only in October. He is frequently compared with US President Barack Obama and is banking on his charisma and the large number of young voters to win. He is seeking the backing of the Nationalist People’s Coalition, headed by San Miguel Corp. chair Eduardo Cojuangco, one of the wealthiest individuals in the country.

Sen. Loren Legarda. The only woman among likely candidates, she won the biggest number of votes in the senatorial elections in 2007, a good indicator of national appeal. A former cover girl and television news reader, she wants to be the country’s first “green” president. May be hampered by a lack of funds and doubts whether another woman would be able to win after Ms Arroyo, whose popularity is currently low.

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro. Says he is waiting for Ms Arroyo’s approval. If he gets that, he will get the support of the powerful Lakas-Kampi ruling coalition’s electoral machine, but may also inherit Ms Arroyo’s unpopularity. Teodoro is also a nephew of former President Corazon Aquino and of Cojuangco, and the latter could end up supporting him.

Vice President Manuel “Noli” de Castro. Consistently high in opinion polls, but has refused to indicate whether he will be a candidate. Has rarely spoken publicly about serious issues, but enjoys wide popularity because of his career as a radio and television news anchor.

Parties don’t matter

Analysts say a good campaign could cost P3 billion to P4 billion and a loyal network will be essential for a candidate looking to win.

“Parties do not really matter, because at the end of the day politicians will choose the one with the biggest chance,” said political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan.

Local politicians, from governors down to mayors, were expected to cross party lines and loyalties to support the candidate perceived to have the highest chance to win, he said.
“The candidate is the party,” Gatmaitan said.

By the end of this year, perhaps only four serious candidates will be left, analysts said.
“By then, the major political forces would have chosen their bets,” Gatmaitan said. “It’s totally a free-for-all contest,” he added.

(Comments: Hmmm.. sounds like the election is a done deal? Well, choosing any of these politikos tantamounts to saying that the country will stay the same for the next 6 years! Let us remember that our barometer for choosing the next president should be: transparency, honesty, anti-corruption, anti-nepotism, anti-cronyism, pro-poor (where majority of our kababayans are really poor in the country), focused on the country's economic development and prosperity and not "the party first" mentality, credibility, one with a strong political will to send the corrupt to prison, and one who leads by example. Anything or anyone short of this is NOT qaulified to run. Now, go over those presidentiables again above and check for yourselves if these candidates qualify at all...Hay... di na talaga ba tayo nagsasawa sa mga taong ito? Di na tayo natuto o nadadala. We Filipinos never and want to learn from history. Ang dali nating makalimot at magpatawad. Tayo rin and binabalikan! Aba'y maawa naman tayo sa mga susunod na henerasyon! Huwah tayong selfish. Nothing's new, nothing will change).

'P50-billion road fund misused'

By Jess Diaz. Philstar

MANILA, Philippines - At least 15 congressmen are seeking an investigation into the alleged misuse of more than P50 billion in funds for road maintenance, road safety and pollution control.
Representatives Abraham Mitra of Palawan, Paul Daza of Northern Samar, Marc Douglas Cagas of Davao del Sur, Rufus Rodriguez of Cagayan de Oro City, Niel Tupas Jr. of Iloilo and Carlos Padilla of Nueva Vizcaya sought the inquiry in separate manifestations they made at recent House hearings.

Eight other congressmen led by Deputy Speaker Eric Singson of Ilocos Sur filed a resolution also proposing an investigation.

The congressmen said a large part of the money goes to the pockets of corrupt officials and contractors.

The funds whose use or misuse they want the House to look into are collections from the so-called motor vehicle user’s charge (MVUC), otherwise known as the road user’s tax.
This is a levy Congress imposed six or seven years ago on owners of all motor vehicles, whose annual registration fees were increased by 100 percent over a four-year period.
The collections go to a special fund administered by an agency called the Road Board, which the secretary of public works and highways chairs and which is attached to his department.
More than P50 billion in MVUV taxes have been collected. Annual collections now reach P10 billion to P11 billion.

Most of the funds go to road maintenance and safety projects such as the installation of catch eye markers and guard rails. A portion goes to pollution control.

Mitra said despite insistent prodding from him and his colleagues, the House committee on public works chaired by Leyte Rep. Roger Mercado has not conducted a hearing on the misuse and misallocation of MVUC funds.

Mitra has filed a resolution that seeks to abolish the Road Board and to use MVUC collections to support the annual budget instead of the money going to a special fund outside the control of the Department of Budget and Management and being dissipated.

Padilla complained that projects funded by more than P400 million in road maintenance and road safety money allocated to his province four years ago could not be found.
“The projects and the money have vanished,” he said.

There were complaints of missing funds in other provinces as well.

In Eastern Samar, road signs and guard rails worth P350 million could not be located.
“What we need here are roads, not catch eye markers and guard rails,” one local official said.
Many congressmen complain of inequitable distribution of funds. For instance, in the past two years, Nueva Ecija was given about P2 billion in MVUC money.

More than P1 billion of the projects in Nueva Ecija were given to a newly formed company called Meditech Trade and Development Corp. The company has also won contracts in Laguna. Nueva Ecija officials said they could hardly find the P2 billion projects in their province. Rep. Rodriguez, who belongs to the opposition bloc in the House, complained of politics in the allocation of MVUC money.

He said his district was not given funds, while other districts received tens of millions and even hundreds of millions.

In their resolution, Singson and his seven other colleagues, all belonging to the Northern Luzon bloc of congressmen, said the House should revisit the MVUC tax.

Despite the collection and expenditure of more than P50 billion, they said many roads are still in a state of disrepair and are not safe to travel.

They said people need roads, not luminous signs and markers and guard rails.

They stressed that the bulk of the money is just being dissipated for projects that the public does not really need.