SAY ANALYSTS: Money, loyal network will decide 2010 polls

Philippine Daily Inquirer

MANILA, Philippines—The presidential election next year will be won by the candidate who has the biggest campaign budget and ground-level network, analysts said Thursday.

About a half-dozen candidates are expected to be in the fray for the May 2010 presidential election to replace President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo and lead the country for the next six years.

“This is going to be one of the closest political contests in Philippine history,” said Earl Parreño, an analyst at the Institute for Political and Electoral Reforms.

“Based on initial public opinion polls, we don’t really see any runaway candidate. Next year’s contest might be decided by less than one million votes [out of a 40-million electorate] so the candidate with vast resources and network would really have a clear edge.”

The likely candidates are:

Sen. Manuel Villar. Perhaps the best placed in terms of money, he is a self-made billionaire and controls real estate firm Vista Land and Lifescapes. In politics for 17 years, he says his experience in running a company will be key to a successful presidency.

Sen. Manuel “Mar” Roxas II. Called the intelligent man’s candidate, Roxas is a former Wall Street banker and the grandson of a former president. He has served as trade secretary in two Cabinets. No slouch in the money department either, his mother belongs to the wealthy Araneta clan, which owns a large chunk of Manila real estate.

Sen. Francis “Chiz” Escudero. Not yet 40, he qualifies to run for president only in October. He is frequently compared with US President Barack Obama and is banking on his charisma and the large number of young voters to win. He is seeking the backing of the Nationalist People’s Coalition, headed by San Miguel Corp. chair Eduardo Cojuangco, one of the wealthiest individuals in the country.

Sen. Loren Legarda. The only woman among likely candidates, she won the biggest number of votes in the senatorial elections in 2007, a good indicator of national appeal. A former cover girl and television news reader, she wants to be the country’s first “green” president. May be hampered by a lack of funds and doubts whether another woman would be able to win after Ms Arroyo, whose popularity is currently low.

Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro. Says he is waiting for Ms Arroyo’s approval. If he gets that, he will get the support of the powerful Lakas-Kampi ruling coalition’s electoral machine, but may also inherit Ms Arroyo’s unpopularity. Teodoro is also a nephew of former President Corazon Aquino and of Cojuangco, and the latter could end up supporting him.

Vice President Manuel “Noli” de Castro. Consistently high in opinion polls, but has refused to indicate whether he will be a candidate. Has rarely spoken publicly about serious issues, but enjoys wide popularity because of his career as a radio and television news anchor.

Parties don’t matter

Analysts say a good campaign could cost P3 billion to P4 billion and a loyal network will be essential for a candidate looking to win.

“Parties do not really matter, because at the end of the day politicians will choose the one with the biggest chance,” said political analyst Antonio Gatmaitan.

Local politicians, from governors down to mayors, were expected to cross party lines and loyalties to support the candidate perceived to have the highest chance to win, he said.
“The candidate is the party,” Gatmaitan said.

By the end of this year, perhaps only four serious candidates will be left, analysts said.
“By then, the major political forces would have chosen their bets,” Gatmaitan said. “It’s totally a free-for-all contest,” he added.

(Comments: Hmmm.. sounds like the election is a done deal? Well, choosing any of these politikos tantamounts to saying that the country will stay the same for the next 6 years! Let us remember that our barometer for choosing the next president should be: transparency, honesty, anti-corruption, anti-nepotism, anti-cronyism, pro-poor (where majority of our kababayans are really poor in the country), focused on the country's economic development and prosperity and not "the party first" mentality, credibility, one with a strong political will to send the corrupt to prison, and one who leads by example. Anything or anyone short of this is NOT qaulified to run. Now, go over those presidentiables again above and check for yourselves if these candidates qualify at all...Hay... di na talaga ba tayo nagsasawa sa mga taong ito? Di na tayo natuto o nadadala. We Filipinos never and want to learn from history. Ang dali nating makalimot at magpatawad. Tayo rin and binabalikan! Aba'y maawa naman tayo sa mga susunod na henerasyon! Huwah tayong selfish. Nothing's new, nothing will change).